Will Arkansas legalize marijuana tonight?

For many, the most interesting race in Arkansas tonight is whether the state will legalize cannabis for adult use.

It’s also expected to be one of the tightest contests in the Natural State.

We’re one of five states voting on recreational marijuana today, and we’d be the 20th state to legalize the drug.

The Issue 4 campaign has been so interesting because it really hasn’t been about whether most Arkansans want to legalize marijuana (polling suggests they do). It has been more about whether marijuana proponents are OK with a what national experts have told me is an amendment that includes “heavy-handed” handouts to existing medical marijuana companies.

Can a coalition of social conservatives and liberals who see Issue 4 as a monopoly in the making defeat it?

We’ll know soon enough, but public polling has not been favorable.

When Talk Business and Politics first polled the issue in September, it found 58% of 834 likely voters supported Issue 4.

Talk Business’ most recent poll in mid-October showed the margin has slimmed considerably, with 50.5% of the 974 likely voters surveyed in favor of Issue 4.

The Arkansas Poll, released annually by the University of Arkansas Political Science Department, found a shocking 41% support for Issue 4 among the 801 Arkansans it interviewed by phone during the second half of October.

But as one savvy pollster told me: “Polls aren’t elections.”

Stay tuned.